How do you find the expected return of a portfolio with probability?
Sarah Garza
Updated on February 08, 2026
The expected return of a portfolio is calculated by multiplying the weight of each asset by its expected return and adding the values for each investment. For example, a portfolio has three investments with weights of 35% in asset A, 25% in asset B, and 40% in asset C.
How do you calculate expected return from probability and return?
The return on the investment is an unknown variable that has different values associated with different probabilities. Expected return is calculated by multiplying potential outcomes (returns) by the chances of each outcome occurring, and then calculating the sum of those results (as shown below).
How do you calculate portfolio risk and return?
Portfolio risks can be calculated, like calculating the risk of single investments, by taking the standard deviation of the variance of actual returns of the portfolio over time.
What does portfolio return mean?
Portfolio return refers to the gain or loss realized by an investment portfolio containing several types of investments. Portfolios aim to deliver returns based on the stated objectives of the investment strategy, as well as the risk tolerance of the type of investors targeted by the portfolio.
How do you calculate portfolio weight?
Portfolio weight is the percentage of an investment portfolio that a particular holding or type of holding comprises. The most basic way to determine the weight of an asset is by dividing the dollar value of a security by the total dollar value of the portfolio.
What formula finds the expected return of an investment?
What Is Expected Return? The expected return is the profit or loss that an investor anticipates on an investment that has known historical rates of return (RoR). It is calculated by multiplying potential outcomes by the chances of them occurring and then totaling these results.
How do you calculate monthly portfolio return?
Take the ending balance, and either add back net withdrawals or subtract out net deposits during the period. Then divide the result by the starting balance at the beginning of the month. Subtract 1 and multiply by 100, and you’ll have the percentage gain or loss that corresponds to your monthly return.
How is the expected return of a portfolio calculated?
The expected return for an investment portfolio is the weighted average of the expected return of each of its components. Components are weighted by the percentage of the portfolio’s total value that each accounts for.
Where do the probabilities of an investment come from?
The probabilities of each potential return outcome are derived from studying historical data on previous returns of the investment asset being evaluated. The probabilities stated, in this case, might be derived from studying the performance of the asset over the previous 10 years.
How are risk and return related in the capital markets?
Research has shown that the two are linked in the capital markets and that generally, higher returns can only be achieved by taking on greater risk. Risk isn’t just the potential loss of return, it is the potential loss of the entire investment itself (loss of both principal and interest).
Which is the best company for risk and return?
On the basis of above mention risk indicators Company H is best. Following are the probability distribution of returns of portfolio of Stock A and Stock B in equal proportion of weight in each state of economy.